Market Recap: Biggest Movers and Economic Data Insights

Wall Street closed out last week with its sharpest single-day losses since early January, capping a risk-off session driven by inflation fears, sector rotation, and defensive flows. As U.S. markets pause for Presidents Day, global investors are digesting the volatility and positioning for a pivotal week ahead defined by major economic data, central bank commentary, and high-profile earnings. Here’s your comprehensive market recap and actionable preview of what’s next for equities, sectors, and macro trends.

Key Takeaways:

• Major U.S. indices posted steep declines Friday as risk-off sentiment dominated ahead of critical CPI data
• Top movers included DraftKings (DKNG), Roku (ROKU), and Applied Materials (AMAT) on earnings disappointments
• Defensive sectors outperformed; technology and cyclicals led declines
• Bond yields rose, the VIX spiked, and global markets mirrored Wall Street’s volatility
• The week ahead is defined by U.S. CPI, Fed signals, and a heavy earnings slate

Market Overview

Friday, February 13, marked the worst single-day performance for U.S. equities since early January. All major indices closed deep in the red, with more than 80% of S&P 500 stocks finishing lower. Trading volumes surged, reflecting accelerated risk reduction by both retail and institutional investors ahead of the long weekend and the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

This broad-based retreat reversed last week’s record highs, as highlighted in our Afternoon Market Wrap and prior daily recap. The volatility index (VIX) saw a sharp spike, underscoring heightened investor anxiety. With U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day, global attention has shifted to how this risk-off tone will play out in the week ahead.

For further insights on the current market trends and inflation impacts, you can refer to the Investopedia article on inflation.

Top Movers

Friday’s session saw outsized moves among both tech and consumer names. Earnings misses and weak outlooks punished DraftKings (DKNG), Roku (ROKU), and Applied Materials (AMAT), while defensives like Procter & Gamble (PG) benefited from the flight to safety. The continued fallout from recent earnings disappointments was a key theme, as reported in our previous analysis.

Sector Performance

Sector rotation dominated Friday’s trading, with defensive groups outperforming and growth-oriented sectors lagging:

• Defensive Sectors: Utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare posted relative gains as investors sought safety. Consumer staples ETFs and stocks like Procter & Gamble (PG) attracted inflows.
• Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services: These sectors led declines, driven by earnings misses and renewed inflation fears. Major ETFs in these spaces saw net outflows.
• Energy: The energy sector (XLE) drifted lower in sympathy with the broad market, with oil prices slipping on growth concerns.

This sector rotation matches the pattern we highlighted in our recent coverage, where risk-off environments have seen defensive names outperform and tech/cyclicals underperform. The rotation is likely to remain in play as macro risk events approach.

Macroeconomic Developments

Friday’s session was heavily influenced by anticipation of the January CPI release, seen as the key determinant for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Persistent inflation anxiety drove bond yields higher across the curve and pushed the VIX sharply upward. There were no major U.S. economic data releases on Friday itself, but the market’s focus is squarely on the inflation outlook and Fed guidance.

• Bond Yields: Treasury yields rose as investors priced in the risk of a hotter-than-expected CPI print. The move aligns with the trend discussed in our bond market recap.
• Fed Policy: Markets are bracing for the possibility that persistent inflation could push the Fed to delay rate cuts or maintain a hawkish stance longer than previously expected.

With U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day, the macro calendar is stacked for the week ahead, and any surprise in CPI data could trigger large moves across asset classes.

Commodities and Global Markets

Commodity markets reflected the same volatility as equities:

• Oil: WTI and Brent crude prices slipped on Friday amid global growth concerns and risk aversion. Energy stocks tracked the commodity lower.
• Gold: Gold prices edged higher as investors sought safe-haven assets, consistent with the defensive flows in equities.
• Bitcoin: Crypto markets remained volatile, mirroring risk sentiment in equities and commodities.

In Asia, markets opened the week under pressure, echoing Wall Street’s retreat. Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) remained below 5,000, highlighting ongoing stress across Asia-Pacific equities (see our recent global market update). European indices are set to resume trading after a similarly weak close on Friday, with pre-market futures signaling a cautious open.

Outlook and Key Events Ahead

Economic Calendar

The week ahead is defined by high-stakes macro events and earnings. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Tuesday, February 17. Consensus expectations call for a year-over-year increase of around 2.9%—any deviation could drive sharp moves across both equities and fixed income. This CPI print is seen as the crucial test for the Federal Reserve’s “soft landing” narrative and will set the tone for risk assets through month-end.

• Tuesday, Feb 17: U.S. CPI (consensus: +2.9% YoY)
• Thursday, Feb 19: U.S. retail sales, weekly jobless claims
• Friday, Feb 20: Global PMI releases, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Investors should also watch for global economic data, including eurozone inflation and China’s economic activity data, both of which may influence cross-asset flows.

Earnings Watch

This week features a heavy earnings slate, with key reports from both technology leaders and defensive giants. Actionable earnings to watch include:

• Walmart (WMT): Reports Tuesday; focus on margins and consumer spending trends
• Nvidia (NVDA): Reports Wednesday; market will scrutinize AI demand, data center growth, and forward guidance
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Reports Thursday; cybersecurity demand and billings growth in focus

The market reaction to these reports will provide critical signals for sector leadership and sentiment, especially after last week’s disappointing results from DraftKings (DKNG), Roku (ROKU), and Applied Materials (AMAT).

Central Bank & Policy

The Federal Reserve takes center stage with several scheduled appearances by FOMC members and the release of January meeting minutes (Wednesday, Feb 18). Market-implied odds for a March rate cut have faded, with traders now pricing in a later policy pivot if inflation proves sticky. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also hold press briefings, adding to global rate policy uncertainty.

Technical Levels & Sentiment

• S&P 500: Key support at 4,950, with resistance at 5,090. A break below support could trigger further de-risking.
• Nasdaq Composite: Watching 15,400 as near-term support; a breach could intensify selling pressure in tech.
• VIX: Elevated; watch for a move above 20 as a risk-off trigger.

ETF flow data shows continued rotation from growth to defensive sectors. Put/call ratios and fund flows suggest hedging remains elevated, reflecting investor caution.

Risks & Catalysts

Key risks for the week include:

• Unexpected upside in CPI or global inflation data, which could force central banks to stay hawkish
• Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific
• Large options expirations, which could amplify volatility around macro events
• Potential sector rotation as earnings season progresses

Investors should prepare for a volatile week, with macro data, Fed signals, and earnings all converging to drive market direction. Defensive positioning has outperformed in recent sessions, but any surprise in economic data or earnings could quickly change the narrative.

For deeper analysis on market risks and sector strategies, see our recent macroeconomic recap.

Actionable Next Steps

• Monitor Tuesday’s CPI print and watch for Fed commentary on policy direction
• Track earnings from WMT, NVDA, and PANW for signals on consumer and tech demand
• Watch technical levels on major indices—breaches may signal further de-risking or a reversal
• Consider maintaining hedges and a defensive tilt until volatility subsides and macro clarity improves

Bookmark this post and refer to our afternoon market wrap and recent movers recap for ongoing updates as the week unfolds.