Tag: AI disruption

U.S. stocks head into Tuesday’s open after a sharp, tariff-and-AI-driven selloff Monday that took the Dow down more than 800 points and pushed bitcoin to a fresh weekly low close. The actionable setup: policy uncertainty is tightening risk appetite (defensives held up, cyclicals and tech lagged), while the next major catalyst is earnings—especially Nvidia (NVDA)—plus any incremental clarity on tariffs and potential retaliation.

Key Takeaways:

• You’ll get the exact Monday, Feb. 23 U.S. closing levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow, plus verified cross-asset closes for gold, oil, and bitcoin.
• You’ll see the highest-probability catalysts for the next 48–72 hours: tariffs/retaliation headlines, private-credit stress signals, and this week’s earnings slate.
• You’ll leave with a practical earnings watchlist (KEYS, DPZ, D, OKE, FANG, BWXT and others) with verified EPS estimates and report timing.

Prerequisites

• You should be comfortable reading index closes, point moves, and percent changes.
• You should understand the difference between a completed cash-session close and pre-market/futures headlines.
• You should have a watchlist tool for tracking tickers and earnings times (pre-market vs. after-hours).

Market Overview

In the most recent completed U.S. session (Monday, Feb. 23, 2026), equities sold off broadly as tariff uncertainty and “AI disruption” fears hit risk appetite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed at 48,804.06 (-821.91, -1.66%), the S&P 500 (^GSPC) ended at 6,837.75 (-71.76, -1.04%), and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) finished at 22,627.27 (-258.80, -1.13%), per verified Yahoo Finance close data fetched 11:00 UTC on Feb. 24, 2026.

Monday’s intraday ranges reinforced the “headline tape” regime: the S&P 500 traded from 6,819.82 to 6,916.96, and the Nasdaq ranged from 22,547.12 to 22,893.22 before sellers controlled the close (verified Yahoo Finance data). Forward-looking: if futures can’t stabilize despite lower yields, the market is signaling this is more about risk premia and earnings uncertainty than a simple rates story.

Continuity: This extends the fragile-market setup we discussed in our report on the Jane Street lawsuit tied to Terraform and why market-structure headlines can matter when liquidity is thin: correlation spikes and single-stock shocks can bleed into indexes quickly when investors de-risk.

Outlook and Key Events Ahead

a. Economic Calendar

The near-term macro catalyst is less about a single scheduled data print (in the sources provided) and more about tariff implementation details and second-order impacts on inflation expectations, corporate guidance, and credit. Edward Jones said President Donald Trump raised the global tariff rate implemented under Section 122 of the Trade Act to 15% (published Feb. 23, 2026) and cited a Yale Budget Lab estimate that the effective tariff rate would be expected to fall modestly to 13.7% under the new 15% global tariff (source: Edward Jones).

CNBC framed the Supreme Court ruling as throwing the administration’s tariff strategy into flux, raising uncertainty for global trade and the U.S. economy (source: CNBC). What to watch next: any concrete timeline or legal/legislative path for tariffs beyond the Section 122 window, because that changes how quickly analysts adjust 2026 margin assumptions.

b. Earnings Watch

The verified earnings calendar shows a dense week, including Dominion Energy (D) pre-market with EPS estimate $0.64, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) pre-market with EPS estimate $5.36, and after-hours reports from Keysight Technologies (KEYS) EPS estimate $1.73, ONEOK (OKE) EPS estimate $1.50, Diamondback Energy (FANG) EPS estimate $1.88, BWX Technologies (BWXT) EPS estimate $0.91, plus BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) EPS estimate $0.07 and Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) EPS estimate ($0.22) (verified Yahoo Finance earnings calendar block).

CNBC also noted investors are bracing for key earnings results from Nvidia (NVDA) later this week (source: CNBC). Actionable framing: in a tape where “AI disruption” is pressuring software and parts of tech, NVDA’s guidance can either re-anchor the AI infrastructure trade or validate broader multiple compression risk.

c. Central Bank & Policy

Rates acted like a hedge bid Monday. Edward Jones reported the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.03% and the 2-year at 3.44% (source: Edward Jones). Separately, a report said Fed Governor Christopher Waller described a March rate cut as “a coin flip” (source: AOL).

d. Technical Levels & Sentiment

Monday’s close put the S&P 500 (^GSPC) down 71.76 points from Friday’s 6,909.51 close, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) down 258.80 points from 22,886.07 (verified Yahoo Finance data). The practical tell: both indexes traded near Friday’s levels intraday but failed to hold, which often signals sellers are using strength to reduce exposure.

Positioning can amplify that dynamic. CNBC reported options and leveraged fund trading volumes have surged since the pandemic, with daily volumes growing at compound annual rates of 29% for leveraged funds and 16% for options between 2020 and 2025 (source: CNBC).

e. Risks & Catalysts

• Tariff escalation / retaliation: A top EU trade lawmaker told CNBC the U.S. has breached the terms of its trade deal with the European Union “several times” and Europe is ready to retaliate (source: CNBC).
• Private credit stress: CNBC described stress spreading in private credit, which it characterized as roughly a $3 trillion market (source: CNBC).
• Large-bank caution: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said “watch out” and that his “anxiety is high” as lofty asset prices add to risks (source: CNBC).
• Crypto as liquidity barometer: bitcoin (BTC-USD) closed Monday at 63,283.38 (-2.06%) in the verified dataset, and CNBC reported it fell below $63,000 Tuesday (intraday) (source: CNBC).

Continuity: For the legal/policy backdrop, see our breakdown of the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs and what it meant for markets. The new development since that post is the market now trading the implementation path (Section 122 rate hikes and retaliation rhetoric) rather than just the court decision.

Top Movers

The biggest verified percentage movers in Monday’s session were concentrated in a handful of names, while large-cap liquid tickers also saw meaningful declines. The table below includes only rows where the verified dataset provides exact closing prices and exact percent changes for Monday, Feb. 23.

Forward-looking: IBM (IBM), Uber (UBER), Visa (V), and Hims & Hers (HIMS) were also listed among the most active names in the verified dataset, which can signal institutional repositioning. If these high-liquidity tickers fail to rebound early Tuesday, index rallies can remain shallow even if smaller names bounce.

Sector Performance

Sector leadership skewed defensive. Edward Jones said consumer staples and health care each gained over 1% Monday, while technology lagged; it also said the software industry declined 4% and the S&P 500 financials sector was down more than 3% (source: Edward Jones).

Forward-looking: if defensives continue to lead while mega-cap tech can’t regain leadership into NVDA earnings, the market is effectively voting for a lower-multiple regime into March.

Macroeconomic Developments

The macro story Monday was “risk-off with bonds bid.” Edward Jones reported the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.03% and the 2-year at 3.44% (source: Edward Jones). CNBC’s market coverage also emphasized anxiety over AI disruption and tariffs as key drivers of the selloff (source: CNBC).

Forward-looking: watch whether falling yields start benefiting rate-sensitive equities (REITs/utilities) more than they benefit growth—if that happens, it’s rotation, not broad risk-on.

Commodities and Global Markets

In the verified close data for Monday, gold (GC=F) ended at $5,189.70/oz (-0.29%), WTI crude (CL=F) at $66.22/bbl (-0.14%), and bitcoin (BTC-USD) at 63,283.38 (-2.06%). Forward-looking: if BTC continues to weaken while oil stays flat, the market is likely signaling liquidity tightening rather than commodity-led inflation.

Continuity: For a deeper framework on how tariff/geopolitical volatility can keep hard assets bid even when other risk assets wobble, see our gold markets outlook on the surge above $5,000 and the cross-asset signals to monitor.

Common Pitfalls or Pro Tips

• Don’t mix session closes with pre-market headlines. Monday’s closes are fixed (verified Yahoo Finance data); Tuesday’s futures commentary is a different window.
• Don’t treat “tariffs” as one trade. Separate margin exposure (imports) from demand exposure (growth sensitivity) when you build your watchlist.
• Use “most active” as a stress indicator. IBM (IBM), Uber (UBER), Visa (V), and HIMS (HIMS) appearing as high-volume names can reflect institutional de-risking rather than news-driven retail churn.

Conclusion

Monday’s close reset the near-term playbook: tariff uncertainty plus AI-driven narrative shocks are pressuring risk, while bonds are bid and defensives are holding up. Your next-step checklist for Tuesday is to monitor tariff/retaliation headlines, watch credit-sensitive financials for stabilization signals, and treat this week’s earnings slate—especially Nvidia (NVDA) and the KEYS/DPZ reports—as the primary catalyst for whether the market transitions into rotation or deeper de-risking.

Sources: Verified market data and earnings calendar from Yahoo Finance API (fetched 2026-02-24T11:00:12Z, session: 2026-02-23); Edward Jones daily recap (published Feb. 23, 2026): link; CNBC articles cited inline (Feb. 23–24, 2026); Yahoo Finance market coverage: link, link.