U.S. stocks ended last Friday higher after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, but futures were lower early Monday as investors weighed fresh tariff escalation and rising Europe–U.S. trade friction. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed Friday, Feb. 20 at 6,909.51 (+47.62, +0.69%), the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at 22,886.07 (+203.34, +0.90%), and the Dow (^DJI) at 49,625.97 (+230.81, +0.47%), according to verified Yahoo Finance close data fetched 11:00 UTC on Feb. 23, 2026.
Policy headlines stayed market-moving into Monday: CNBC reported U.S. stock futures fell amid uncertainty about new tariffs (published Feb. 22) and European officials warned of “pure tariff chaos” as trade deals come under strain (published Feb. 23). Separately, Novo Nordisk (NVO) was among the most active names in Friday’s U.S. session and is in focus after CNBC reported the stock sank 15% Monday following trial results for a next-generation weight loss drug (European hours; not a U.S. close).
Key Takeaways:
- Friday’s risk rally was driven by tariff relief headlines: S&P 500 closed at 6,909.51 (+0.69%) and Nasdaq at 22,886.07 (+0.90%).
- Gold (GC=F) jumped 2.29% to 5,175.30/oz even as WTI (CL=F) slipped 0.48% to $66.07—signaling hedging demand alongside risk-on equities.
- Monday’s setup is headline-sensitive: tariff escalation and Europe–U.S. trade pushback are the dominant near-term catalysts.
- This week’s earnings calendar is heavy in energy and defensives (D, OKE, FANG, DPZ, BMRN), creating sector-specific volatility windows.
Market Overview
Friday’s U.S. session (Feb. 20) finished with a broad risk-on close after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, helping major indexes end higher. Verified closes (Yahoo Finance API, fetched 11:00 UTC on Feb. 23): S&P 500 (^GSPC) 6,909.51 (+47.62, +0.69%), Nasdaq (^IXIC) 22,886.07 (+203.34, +0.90%), Dow (^DJI) 49,625.97 (+230.81, +0.47%).
| Index (Fri, Feb. 20, 2026 close) | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 6,909.51 | +47.62 | +0.69% |
| Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | 22,886.07 | +203.34 | +0.90% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 49,625.97 | +230.81 | +0.47% |
Verified facts: Edward Jones said stocks reversed early losses after the Court’s 6–3 ruling, and flagged an unresolved question about whether previously collected duties—potentially up to $170 billion—must be refunded. It also said Trump announced a new five-month 10% global tariff under Section 122 while the administration considers other pathways (Sections 301/232). Edward Jones daily market recap (published Feb. 20, 2026)
What to watch next: Friday’s gains set a higher bar for Monday’s open—any renewed tariff escalation or retaliation risk can quickly reprice cyclicals, multinationals, and high-duration tech.
Outlook and Key Events Ahead
This week’s playbook is about sequencing catalysts: policy headlines can gap futures, but earnings and rates determine whether those gaps hold through the cash session. The key is to separate (1) what can move markets instantly (tariffs, geopolitics), from (2) what can sustain a move (earnings revisions, yields, and forward guidance).
a) Economic Calendar
Tariff implementation and legal follow-through are acting like “macro data releases” because they directly change expected corporate margins and supply-chain costs. Edward Jones highlighted the unresolved question of tariff refunds (up to $170 billion) and the administration’s intent to pursue alternative tariff pathways. Edward Jones
CNBC reported Monday’s pre-market tone was cautious, with stock futures falling as investors digested the post-ruling environment and uncertainty around new tariffs. CNBC futures/live updates (published Feb. 22, 2026)
Why it matters: Tariff headlines operate like an earnings multiple shock. Even if S&P 500 earnings are stable, the market can compress P/E ratios if policy risk raises the equity risk premium.
b) Earnings Watch
The verified earnings calendar for the week ahead includes a cluster that can drive sector rotation, especially energy and defensives:
- Dominion Energy (D) — pre-market, EPS est: $0.64
- Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) — pre-market, EPS est: $5.36
- Keysight Technologies (KEYS) — after-hours, EPS est: $1.73
- ONEOK (OKE) — after-hours, EPS est: $1.50
- Diamondback Energy (FANG) — after-hours, EPS est: $1.88
- BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) — after-hours, EPS est: $0.07
Actionable setup: If futures remain weak on tariffs, watch whether earnings beats in defensives (D, DPZ) attract incremental flows—this is often where “risk-off but not crash” positioning shows up first.
c) Central Bank & Policy
Verified facts: The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its first 2026 FOMC meeting, matching expectations (FactSet cited by CBS News). CBS News (published Jan. 28, 2026)
MSN reported Fed officials were split on where rates should go, based on minutes from the Jan. 27–28 meeting. MSN (Fed minutes summary)
d) Technical Levels & Sentiment
Verified facts: Friday’s range data shows where the market fought its battle:
- S&P 500 (^GSPC) range: 6,836.33–6,915.86
- Nasdaq (^IXIC) range: 22,539.05–22,948.87
- Dow (^DJI) range: 49,158.28–49,712.56
e) Risks & Catalysts
- Tariff escalation loop: CNBC reported Trump hiked global tariffs to 15% from 10% “effective immediately,” and Europe is pushing back publicly. CNBC (published Feb. 21, 2026) and CNBC (published Feb. 23, 2026)
- Geopolitics and energy: CNBC reported the next U.S.–Iran talks will be held Thursday in Geneva. CNBC (published Feb. 22, 2026)
- AI capex narrative: CNBC reported hyperscalers’ AI capex spending is approaching “unheard of levels,” keeping pressure on the “Magnificent Seven” trade if guidance fails to justify spending. CNBC (published Feb. 23, 2026)
Continuity note: Building on our earlier coverage of the Supreme Court tariff ruling and its market impacts, the market’s biggest risk is the policy “second act” (alternative tariff mechanisms, retaliation, and corporate pass-through). Monday’s futures weakness and Europe’s backlash suggest that second act is now the primary driver.
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Top Movers
Below are Friday’s verified U.S. session movers from the Yahoo Finance API snapshot (fetched 11:00 UTC on Feb. 23). The table includes only entries with exact price and percent change data.
| Ticker | Price (Fri, Feb. 20 close) | Change % | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| RingCentral (RNG) | $39.50 | +34.40% | Top gainer by % change in the verified Friday session data. |
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGN) | $55.24 | +16.84% | Top gainer by % change in the verified Friday session data. |
| Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) | $7.69 | +14.61% | Top gainer by % change in the verified Friday session data. |
| Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) | $43.21 | +14.28% | Top gainer by % change in the verified Friday session data. |
| Fortuna Mining (FSM) | $12.27 | +12.57% | Top gainer by % change in the verified Friday session data. |
| Novo Nordisk (NVO) | $47.42 | -2.13% | Most-active name in the verified Friday session data. The stock sank 15% during European trading hours on Monday following trial results. |
| Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) | $5.76 | -5.57% | Top loser by % change in the verified Friday session data. |
What to watch next: With tariff policy back in motion, expect “reason codes” to shift quickly from company-specific narratives to macro sensitivity (import exposure, FX, and pricing power). Watch whether biotech volatility rises further after Monday’s Novo Nordisk (NVO) trial headline. CNBC (published Feb. 23, 2026)
Sector Performance
Verified facts: Edward Jones said retail and technology stocks outperformed on Friday as markets digested the tariff ruling and the administration’s response. Edward Jones
Analysis (inference): Retail’s relative strength fits a tape where markets interpret “tariffs struck down” as a near-term margin tailwind for import-heavy categories. The risk is that the administration’s pivot to alternative tariff mechanisms (and reported increases to 15%) reverses that tailwind quickly.
What to watch next: If Europe–U.S. trade conflict escalates, industrials and semis can see whipsaw action: they benefit from risk-on sentiment but are directly exposed to cross-border friction and capex timing.
Macroeconomic Developments
Verified facts: Edward Jones referenced the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.07% in its market snapshot context, alongside commentary that refund uncertainty could widen deficits and affect yields. Edward Jones
Verified facts: CBS News reported the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its Jan. 28 decision. CBS News
What to watch next: The macro “tell” this week is whether yields fall on risk-off tariff headlines (classic flight-to-quality), or rise on deficit/refund concerns (term premium). That split matters for factor leadership across mega-cap tech (Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META)) and cyclicals.
Commodities and Global Markets
Friday’s cross-asset tape kept hedges bid even as equities rose:
- Gold (GC=F): 5,175.30/oz (+116.00, +2.29%)
- WTI crude (CL=F): $66.07/bbl (-0.32, -0.48%)
- Bitcoin (BTC-USD): 66,308.26 (-1,351.13, -2.00%)
Continuity: This “equities up / gold up” mix matches the regime we highlighted in our gold markets outlook as prices surged above $5,000 and our silver market outlook on navigating volatility: investors are treating metals as policy/geopolitical insurance, not just an inflation trade.
Crypto context: CoinDesk previewed a “crypto week ahead” dominated by earnings from crypto-related companies, while noting the ripple effects from Friday’s Supreme Court tariff decision. CoinDesk (published Feb. 23, 2026)
What to watch next: If gold stays firm while oil spikes on U.S.–Iran headlines, inflation expectations could re-accelerate—raising the odds of a renewed rates shock for equity duration.
Common Pitfalls or Pro Tips
- Pitfall: Treating the tariff ruling as “resolved.” Edward Jones highlighted the refund question (up to $170 billion) and noted alternative tariff pathways are being explored. Edward Jones
- Pro tip: Use Friday’s index ranges as your Monday framework. The S&P 500’s 6,836.33–6,915.86 range is a practical map for whether the market is accepting or rejecting the post-ruling repricing.
- Pitfall: Confusing “most active” with “best opportunity.” Novo Nordisk (NVO) was most active Friday and is now headline-driven on Monday. High volume can mean liquidity, but it can also mean you’re trading into a volatility event.
- Pro tip: Cross-check hedges. When equities rally but gold (GC=F) also surges, the market is often paying for tail risk—use that to size exposure and avoid chasing late.
Conclusion
Friday’s close delivered a headline-driven risk rally—S&P 500 at 6,909.51 (+0.69%)—but Monday’s pre-market tone is cautious as tariff escalation risk returns to the foreground. Your highest-ROI prep for this week is to track tariff/legal updates, U.S.–Iran headlines, and the earnings cluster (D, OKE, FANG, KEYS, DPZ, BMRN) for guidance that confirms (or contradicts) the market’s pricing.